【Evening Session】Historical Level Short Squeeze Uptrend Remains Unchanged

Gold:

According to relevant media reports, on 13 October(local time), U.S. President Trump held a peace summit with the leaders of Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar in Egypt, and signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement to end the war.

This agreement is expected to serve as a key basis for consolidating the Gaza ceasefire, ensuring the continuous flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and fully launching Gaza’s reconstruction. After the tariff war started, the gold price rose steadily and once approached $4,180. However, as the Middle East issue moves toward reconciliation and the resurgence of TACO trades, the gold price has undergone a divergence correction.

Mai Dong, an Investment Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), noted that this year’s historic surge in gold prices is second only to those in 1973, 1974, and 1979—periods that coincided with the order-rebuilding phase after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Gold’s performance this year has far exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of the "unprecedented changes in a century" globally, de-dollarization and major geopolitical turbulences will continue to support the strength of gold prices.

Technical Analysis：On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed, indicating a strong upward movement in the gold price.On the 1-hour chart, the market has seen a divergence correction, and the price remains above the 60/120-day moving averages; the uptrend remains intact. For today, focus on the support level at $4,050 below and the resistance level at $4,180 above.

Crude Oil:

Geopolitics:According to relevant media reports, on 13 October(local time), Ukrainian President Zelensky met with Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Kyiv. The two sides focused on discussions regarding energy support for Ukraine during the winter, the EU’s new round of sanctions against Russia, and the use of Russia’s frozen overseas assets.

On 13 October, OPEC released its Oil Market Report. It projected that global crude oil demand in 2026 will be 43.1 million barrels per day (unchanged from the previous month), revised up its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day (from the previous 1.29 million barrels per day), and maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day.

Currently, the main driver of the crude oil market remains trade uncertainty. The latest monthly report shows that global oil demand growth will be limited within the next two years, and crude oil prices will remain in a low-range operation.

Technical Analysis：On the daily chart, a small bullish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the price has fallen below $60 and remains in a low range.

On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in a downtrend. For today, focus on the support level at $58.10 below and the resistance level at $59.80 above.

U.S. Dollar:

Trump’s tariff war has triggered panic sentiment, and the U.S. dollar, as a safe-haven asset, may enter a high-range consolidation phase. However, it should be noted that as U.S. effective tax rates continue to rise, U.S. enterprises may raise prices to offset the increased costs caused by tariffs, which will exacerbate the risk of economic recession.

At the same time, investors view this trade dispute as a new round of TACO trades, and it is expected that they will increase their holdings of U.S. assets and the U.S. dollar again in the future. Under this scenario, the U.S. dollar will be provided with upward momentum.

Regarding the Euro:Germany’s fiscal stimulus has accelerated, and the overall growth of the Eurozone has improved. It is expected that after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of October, or if U.S. economic data falls short of expectations, the U.S. dollar’s subsequent upward movement may face resistance around the 100.50 level—given that the Euro’s fundamentals are relatively more favorable.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the market is trading above 98.50.On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in an uptrend, with the price trading above the 60/120-day moving averages. For today, focus on the support level at 99.10 below, the resistance level at 99.50 above, and monitor for a new intraday high.

Nasdaq:

On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the market is currently consolidating in the range of 24,000-25,200.

On the 1-hour chart, the market did not experience a V-shaped reversal yesterday; it pulled back to near the 120-day moving average, encountered resistance, and continued to decline. For today, focus on the resistance level at 24,700 above and the support level at 24,200 below.

Copper:

On the daily chart, copper closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the price encountered significant resistance at $5.12.

On the 1-hour chart, the price did not reach a new high and is trading below the 60/120-day moving averages; the market has shifted to a downward trend. For today, focus on the support level at $4.76 below and the resistance level at $5.01 above.

14 October Market Snapshot：

1.International gold and silver hit new highs: On the 14th, gold once refreshed its high to $4,179, and silver once broke through $53.

2.Bank of America (BofA): Raised its next-year gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce.

3.SocGen: Predicts that the gold price will reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

4.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: After the government reopens, official Treasury Department data will be released.

14 October Key Data/Events Preview：

1.20:45 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech.

2.21:00 (Beijing Time): The IMF releases the World Economic Outlook Report.

3.00:20 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech.

4.03:25 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech.

5.03:30 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed President Susan Collins delivers a speech.

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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