【Evening Session】Interest Rate Cut Proceeds as Scheduled Gold's Target Raised​

Gold:

In the early morning of this Thursday (30 October), the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as scheduled at its monetary policy meeting, bringing the benchmark rate to the range of 3.75%-4.0%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the possibility of another rate cut in December remains uncertain, a comment that has increased volatility in the future rate-cut path.

The World Bank's analysis projects that the average gold price next year will be around $3,575, with an expected further 5% increase to double the average level seen between 2015 and 2019. Nevertheless, the report indicates that golds upward trend may end in 2027, with the average price reverting to around $3,375.

Owen, Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research (exclusively invited by Plotio), noted that this marks the Fed's second rate cut this year, but the move has already been fully priced in by the market. Additionally, the probability of a December rate cut has declined, leading to sluggish gold price performance.

Technical Analysis: After declining on Monday and Tuesday, gold has maintained a weak oscillating trend. In the short term, both highs and lows are moving higher, with upside potential toward the $4,070 level. Today sees the closing of both monthly and weekly candles, so close attention should be paid to the closing levels.

Crude Oil:

The OPEC+ meeting in November will be held this Sunday (2 November). The market widely expects OPEC+ to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December to gradually regain market share. Since April this year, OPEC+ has continued to ramp up production, fueling growing concerns about oversupply.

On Wednesday (29 October), the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report showing that crude oil inventories plummeted by 686,000 barrels, far exceeding market expectations and providing bullish momentum for oil prices. However, U.S. crude oil production rose by 15,000 barrels per day to a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day, failing to drive oil prices higher.

Technical Analysis: Crude oil has formed a double bottom structure on the weekly chart. If it fails to break below $55, it is expected to stop falling and form a bullish trend. In the short term, oil prices retreated after encountering resistance at $62.50 last week and have oscillated over the past two days. A break below $59.60 would test support around the $57 level.

U.S. Dollar:

At yesterday's (30 October) European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, the key deposit rate was kept unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time. The ECB stated that the euro zone’s outlook remains uncertain due to global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Following the rate decision, the euro weakened sharply while the U.S. dollar strengthened rapidly.

After the Fed's meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 74.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December and a 57.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 57.7%, a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 25.6%, and a 16.6% probability of no change. The likelihood of rate cuts has decreased compared to before the meeting.

Technical Analysis: The daily chart of the U.S. dollar shows increasing signs of a bottoming-out, with a double bottom structure taking shape. A break above 100.20 would confirm the double bottom, opening the door to a move toward 103.20. On the hourly chart, the dollar is oscillating upward and is expected to extend gains. Intraday support is at 99.32, with upside resistance at the 100 level.

Nikkei 225:

The Nikkei 225 is in a strong bullish trend on the daily chart, with no signs of a peak. On the hourly chart, the upward momentum has accelerated this week, and pullbacks have narrowed—avoid guessing the top. The intraday bull-bear dividing line is at 51,500.

Copper:

On the 4-hour chart, copper prices have been oscillating upward in a wide range over the past two weeks. Key support is at $4.94; a break below this level could trigger a trend reversal. On the hourly chart, copper prices surged higher and then pulled back this week, falling below Tuesday's low yesterday. Resistance is at $5.11.

31 October Market Snapshot:

1. Donald Trump stated that a very large-scale agreement may be reached, involving the purchase of oil and natural gas from Alaska.

2. S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed approval of the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with the accompanying rhetoric. The Fed's skeptical comments on another rate cut this year indicate an urgent need for major reforms at the institution.

3. A report from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that global gold demand in the third quarter of this year hit a record high for a single quarter.

31 October Key Data/Events Preview:

1. 21:30 (GMT+8): Logan, 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Dallas Fed, will deliver a speech.

2. TBD: The U.S. will release the Core PCE Price Index YoY for September, with a market forecast of 2.9% (previous value: 2.9%).

3. TBD: The U.S. will release Personal Spending MoM for September, with a market forecast of 0.4% (previous value: 0.6%).

[Important Disclaimer: The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]

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