Plotio
Finance
As of today, the U.S. government has entered its 21st day of shutdown. The temporary funding bill failed to pass the Senate for the 11th time, a stalemate that will impact the livelihoods of millions of families and disrupt business operations. There is still no clear end in sight to the shutdown, which will inflict damage on the U.S. economy and employment.
Shutdown Impacts Start to Emerge
With the U.S. government shutdown dragging on, approximately 700,000 to 750,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while those in critical positions are working without pay. A senator predicted that this could be the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Over 13,000 air traffic controllers across the country have been forced to work without compensation, leading to more than 8,200 flight delays or cancellations on 12 October. The real estate market has seen numerous home sales nationwide halted due to the shutdown, and many cultural and public facilities have been largely paralyzed.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the economic harm caused by the shutdown has "reached the bones," estimating a weekly loss of up to $15 billion. The White House Council of Economic Advisers projected that as of last weekend, the U.S. unemployment rate may have risen from 4.3% to 4.8%. If the government shutdown lasts for a month, it will result in a loss of up to $30 billion in consumer spending across the country.
Interest Rate Cut Path Confirmed
As the shutdown continues, support for interest rate cuts within the Federal Reserve is growing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that since the September FOMC meeting, the outlook for U.S. employment and inflation has not undergone significant changes, signaling that rate cuts will continue. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that he would support further rate cuts if there are additional risks to the labor market and inflation remains under control. CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows a 99.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a 98.6% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut by December. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by the middle of next year, the federal funds rate will drop to the range of 2.75%-3.0% (implying 100 basis points of rate cuts in the first half of next year).
Owen, a senior gold analyst at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), noted that gold has risen by over 60% so far this year, on track for its strongest rally since 1979. This round of gains is more driven by fundamentals rather than speculation. Comparing to history, during the period of the Bretton Woods system collapse, gold surged from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a more than 2,300% increase. Gold still has significant upside potential ahead, with an immediate target of $4,500 per ounce in the near term.
[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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