【Evening Session】Interest Rate Cuts Resume Gold Price Hits New High Again

Gold:

In the early hours of 15 October, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the current U.S. labor market continues to weaken, and the economy has shown signs of recession.

A key point in Powell’s speech was that the long-running balance sheet reduction process may officially end at the October interest rate meeting. After the speech, the probability of an interest rate cut in October rose from 92% to 97%, and the rate cut expectation has been basically digested by the market.

In addition, the new round of tariff issues has had a significant impact on market sentiment. The implied volatility (fear index) once approached 33, near the extreme fear zone, but there is still a gap compared with 38 in late April. Under this circumstance, gold remains the most sought-after safe-haven asset globally and still has room for growth in the future.

Mai Dong, an Investment Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), opined that judging from implied volatility, the current market panic has not yet reached the level seen during the first round of tariff wars in late April this year. Combined with the expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of October, gold will continue its upward trend.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed, indicating a strong upward movement in the gold price.On the 1-hour chart, after the market corrected the divergence, the price remains above the 60/120-day moving averages. For today, focus on the support level at $4,150 below and the resistance level at $4,240 above.

Crude Oil:

On 14 October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report showing that the global crude oil market may see a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, a figure significantly higher than the previously predicted surplus. The report stated that OPEC+ members and their competitors are all increasing production, while the global demand recovery remains weak, which will exacerbate the market’s supply-demand imbalance.

In terms of geopolitics, according to Matthew Whitaker, U.S. Ambassador to NATO, NATO is expected to continue investing huge funds to arm Ukraine in order to defend against Russia’s winter offensive. The ambassador also hinted that the EU will announce the latest financial support for Ukraine in the next few days.

Currently, the main driver of the crude oil market remains the new round of tariff issues. The IEA report shows that oversupply is still the main contradiction in the crude oil supply-demand side, and oil prices will be under pressure for a long time. On the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, whether Ukraine can survive the winter safely still needs attention.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bearish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the price has fallen below $59 and continues to trade in a low range.On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in a downtrend. For today, focus on the support level at $57.50 below and the resistance level at $59.30 above.

U.S. Dollar:

On 14 October(local time), the U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill proposed by Republicans in the eighth round of voting. The final vote result was 49 in favor and 45 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, and the government remains shut down.

Regarding the Euro, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) are gradually rising. The Euro may show signs of weakness in the coming period due to this factor. Currently, the market believes that the ECB may cut interest rates again in December, and if economic recovery is unsatisfactory amid long-term inflation below 2%, further interest rate cuts may occur in 2026.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bearish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the market has retested around 98.50.On the 1-hour chart, the market has seen lower highs, and the price has fallen below the 60/120-day moving averages, showing an obvious downward correction. For today, focus on the support level at 98.50 below and the resistance level at 99.50 above.

Nasdaq:

On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the market is currently consolidating in the range of 24,000-25,200.

On the 1-hour chart, the market pulled back to the key 618 Fibonacci retracement level yesterday and continued to rise. The key focus today is whether the price can reach a new high. For today, focus on the support level at 24,550 below and the resistance level at 24,950 above.

Copper:

On the daily chart, copper closed with a bearish candle; on the daily timeframe, the price encountered significant resistance at $5.12.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has neither reached a new high nor a new low, and the current price is in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Focus on the pattern breakout. For today, focus on the support level at $4.90 below and the resistance level at $5.05 above.

15 October Market Snapshot：

1.Gold price hit a new high again, once refreshing the high to $4,199.

2.Fed’s Bowman: Continues to expect two more interest rate cuts before the end of this year.

3.Fed’s Collins: A 25-basis-point interest rate cut is appropriate given reduced inflation risks and concerns about the job market.

4.Fed Chair Powell: Balance sheet reduction may be near an end in the next few months; downside risks to the job market are rising.

15 October Key Data/Events Preview：

1.20:30 (Beijing Time): U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index.

2.21:30 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech.

3.01:00 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech.

4.01:35 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed’s Lisa Cook delivers a speech.

5.02:00 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed releases the Beige Book (Economic Conditions).

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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