【Evening Session】Tariff Talks Turn Cold Gold Rises Acceleratedly

Gold:

In the early hours of 16 October, Trump stated that he believes the United States has been drawn into a trade war. When reporters asked whether the failure of the world’s two largest economies to reach a trade agreement would mean a prolonged trade war, Trump added, “We impose 100% tariffs. Without tariffs, we would be completely exposed and defenceless.”

Trump’s response came as a major surprise to the market. The TACO trades that the market had bet on have not yet fully materialized, and whether tariff negotiations can be launched needs to be redefined. Notably, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supplemented with a proposal to consider extending the tariff truce period.

Mai Dong, an Investment Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio),opined that Trump’s latest statement is essentially confirming potential risks. The new round of tariff issues may not shift to a negotiation strategy but instead evolve into a structural confrontation. Under such circumstances, gold has once again benefited and maintained a strong upward trend.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed, indicating a strong upward movement in the gold price.On the 1-hour chart, the price encountered short term resistance around $4,240 but continued to trade strongly above the 60/120-day moving averages. For today, focus on the support level at $4,180 below and the resistance level at $4,260 above.

Crude Oil:

On 14 October, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report, which showed that as a large number of crude oil tankers sail to major global oil trading and storage hubs, global crude oil inventories are rebounding, and the oversupply situation facing the crude oil market will be more severe than expected.

The report pointed out that the crude oil market has been in a state of oversupply since the beginning of this year. With OPEC+ countries increasing production, crude oil output in the Middle East has risen, further expanding the oversupply of crude oil. Oil prices have been under pressure and declining since the start of this year.

In the short term, oil prices are slightly pessimistic. However, if oil prices fall to $55 or even lower, crude oil production in non-OPEC countries will be constrained by production costs, leading to a gradual decline in output. Without further production growth, OPEC may regain control of the crude oil market.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a small bearish candle was closed; on the daily time frame, the price is trading at a relatively low level.On the 1-hour chart, the market is in a slight consolidation phase but remains in a downtrend, with the price still trading below the 120-day moving average. For today, focus on the support level at $57.20 below and the resistance level at $59.50 above.

U.S. Dollar:

On the U.S. side, U.S.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated last night that the current U.S. economic growth is similar to that of the late 19th century or the 1990s, and the future economy will be resilient and sustainable. At the same time, the narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit has supported the recent slight appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar this year may have bottomed out, which is consistent with the tax reform bill passed earlier.

Regarding the Euro, the ongoing political turmoil in France has intensified fiscal uncertainty, casting a shadow over the economic growth of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, ECB officials stated that France should not only focus on short-term fiscal issues but must find a practical plan to reduce the deficit.

Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bearish candle was closed; on the daily time frame, the market has been seesawing around 98.50.On the 1-hour chart, the price continues to trade below the 60/120-day moving averages, and the short-term downtrend continues. For today, focus on the support level at 98.30 below and the resistance level at 98.80 above.

Nasdaq:

On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the market is consolidating at a high level in the range of 24,000-25,200.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has formed a symmetrical triangle through consolidation. Currently, it is difficult for the price to reach a new high or a new low, and it is highly likely to continue the triangle consolidation. For today, focus on the support level at 24,630 below and the resistance level at 24,950 above.

Copper:

On the daily chart, copper closed with a bearish candle; on the daily time frame, the price is trading below $5.12.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has broken below the symmetrical triangle but still found support near the previous low of $4.88. Currently, the market has no clear direction, so it is recommended to view it within a range. For today, focus on the support level at $4.86 below and the resistance level at $5.01 above.

16 October Market Snapshot：

1.Gold price hit a new high again, refreshing the high to $4,241.

2.Fed Beige Book: Consumer spending declined slightly, and labor demand was generally weak.

3.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Quantitative easing reform is an important consideration for the candidate of the next Fed Chair.

4.A U.S. Treasury official stated that the government shutdown may cause a loss of $15 billion to the U.S. economy per week, correcting Secretary Scott Bessent’s previous statement that the daily loss was $15 billion.

16 October Key Data/Events Preview：

1.20:30 (Beijing Time): U.S. October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

2.21:00 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech.

3.21:00 (Beijing Time): Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr delivers a speech.

4.22:00 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers an online speech.

5.00:00 (Beijing Time, next day): U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories (for the week ending October 10).

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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