【Evening Session】US Data Raises Concerns Gold Extends Rally

Gold：

Yesterday (October 1st), the market released the U.S. ADP Employment Change for September, which came in at -32,000, a further decline from the previous reading of -3,000. This data points to a weakening U.S. employment environment, which is bullish for gold prices, and the gold market has sustained its upward momentum.

Following the data release, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October stood at 99.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut by December reached 89.0%. A 25-basis-point rate cut in October has already been priced in by the market.

Due to partisan divisions, the White House and Congress failed to reach a funding agreement, resulting in a government shutdown. This shutdown not only delays the release of economic indicators but also risks dragging down economic growth. Such uncertainty has directly impacted the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and even amplified the risk of an economic recession.

Mai Dong, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research specially invited by Plotio, noted that the U.S. government shutdown is one of the core drivers behind this week’s gold price surge. Combined with yesterdays ADP data—which signals worrying employment prospects—gold bulls have gained fresh momentum, pushing prices to a new all-time high.

Technical Analysis: Yesterdays daily candlestick closed positive. On the 1-hour timeframe, the market remains in an uptrend, but the momentum for creating new highs has weakened, indicating a potential pullback risk. Today, focus on the support level around $3,840 and the resistance level near $3,890.

Crude Oil:

Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released crude oil inventory data for the week ending September 26th. The prior reading showed a decrease of 607,000 barrels, with expectations for an increase of 1.048 million barrels; however, the actual figure rose by 1.792 million barrels—bearish for oil prices.

In terms of geopolitics, media reports indicate that the Trump administration has approved the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence agencies to provide intelligence to Ukraine, supporting Ukraine’s long-range missile attacks on Russian energy facilities. U.S. officials have also urged NATO allies to offer similar support to Ukraine.

Currently, the primary contradiction in the crude oil market remains the structural issue of oversupply, and oil prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Investors should also remain alert to potential sudden bombings of oil pipelines on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield.

Technical Analysis: Yesterdays daily candlestick closed negative. On the daily timeframe, prices continue to consolidate between $61.50 and $66.50. Yesterday, prices found support around $61.50 and staged a modest rebound. On the 1-hour timeframe, the market is consolidating at the bottom; today, monitor whether the low can extend to new lows. Key support lies around $61.20, with resistance near $62.50.

U.S. Dollar Index:  

Regarding U.S. data released yesterday, results were mixed. The ADP employment data showed negative growth, reflecting concerns about the employment environment. Meanwhile, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.1—up from the previous 48.7—but the figure remains below the 50 threshold that distinguishes economic expansion from contraction.

On the government shutdown: Historically, the correlation between U.S. government shutdowns and market performance has been inconsistent, but the context this time is unique. The Trump administration is pushing a plan to reshape the federal government, including cutting approximately 300,000 jobs by December, which has made the economic consequences of the shutdown more severe.

Amid such policy uncertainty, the U.S. dollar may face renewed selling pressure. Particularly against the backdrop of an interest rate cut cycle, the appeal of the U.S. dollar will continue to diminish.

Technical Analysis: Yesterdays candlestick closed negative. On the daily timeframe, the market continues to trade below 98.80. On the 1-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downtrend. Intraday focus is on the support level around 97.30 and the resistance level near 97.85.

Nasdaq:  

The NasDaq daily candlestick closed positive. On the daily timeframe, the market hit a new high again yesterday, approaching the 25,000 mark. On the 1-hour timeframe, prices broke above the previous high of 24,750 and extended the uptrend. Today, focus on the resistance level around 25,000 and the support level near 24,750.

Copper:

Copper daily candlestick closed negative. On the daily timeframe, prices encountered resistance at the key 4.90 level and pulled back slightly, but the uptrend remains intact. On the 1-hour timeframe, prices trade above the 60/120 moving averages, maintaining the upward trend. Today, focus on the support level around $4.82 and the resistance level near $4.90, as well as the possibility of the market breaking higher.

October 2nd Market Snapshot

1. The U.S. Senate once again voted down short-term funding bills proposed by both parties.

2. Fitch Ratings: The U.S. government shutdown will not impact the country’s “AA+/Stable” sovereign credit rating in the short term.

3. Donald Trump stated that Republicans must seize the opportunity of the government shutdown (which he claims was forced by Democrats) to eliminate redundancy, waste, and fraud—actions that could save billions of dollars. U.S. federal funds have been exhausted, leading to the government shutdown.

October 2nd Key Data/Events Preview

1. 20:30 : U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 27^th.
2. 22:00: U.S. Factory Orders Monthly Rate for August.
3. 22:30: U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending September 26^th.
4. 22:30: Speech by Federal Reserve’s Lorie Logan.

Important Statement：

The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform, Zhisheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.  

This article is from Plotio; please cite the source when reprinting.

【In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.】