【Evening Session】Gaza Unexpected Cease fire Be Alert to Gold Price Correction

Gold:

Recently, U.S. President Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas have signed the first-phase agreement of the peace plan. Trump even stated that he might travel to the Middle East in the near future, and even consider visiting Gaza. The ceasefire in Gaza will ease geopolitical frictions in the short term.​

However, the risk-aversion sentiment has not cooled down significantly recently. On one hand, in the recent sixth round of voting, the U.S. Senate once again rejected the bipartisan funding bill, and the U.S. government remains in a shutdown. On the other hand, there are no signs of significant de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict recently, indicating that risk-aversion sentiment is difficult to subside.​

Chen Yu, Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that the recently released minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting show that there are differences among Fed officials regarding subsequent interest rate cuts. The market's expectation of a substantial interest rate cut by the Fed may be discounted. Although the gold bull market remains intact in the medium and long term, investors need to be alert to the risk of a short-term gold price correction.​

Technical Analysis: On the weekly chart, the market rose strongly last week and closed with a positive candle, indicating a strong market trend. On the daily chart, the market surged sharply in the previous trading day and closed with a large positive candle, suggesting that there is still a chance for gold prices to rise in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, the market is moving higher along the 20-day moving average; in the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around the $4,017 mark.​

Crude Oil:

First, recently, the United States, Israel, and Hamas have all released signals indicating that the war in Gaza has ended. This will ease the risk of crude oil supply disruptions in the short term, which is not conducive to the rise of crude oil prices in the short run.​

Second, oil-producing countries are likely to maintain high output. Previously, OPEC+ maintained a policy of slight production increase at its October meeting. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia will gradually increase oil production, indicating that the crude oil supply side is likely to remain at a relatively high level.​

Finally, from the perspective of demand, the U.S. government remains in a shutdown. Although the release of some economic data has been postponed, the market is relatively pessimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, which will not be conducive to the improvement of crude oil demand.​

Technical Analysis: The market pulled back from high levels last week and closed with a negative candle, indicating that crude oil prices are relatively weak in the short term. From the indicator perspective, the market is trading below the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, with bears taking the upper hand.4-Hour Chart: The market is pulling back to test the 20-day moving average. If it stabilizes above this level, there will be a chance for further rebound in crude oil prices; otherwise, crude oil prices face the risk of further decline. Intraday, focus on the resistance level around $64 and the support level around $61.

U.S. Dollar:

In the latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve, among 19 Fed officials, 10 believe that there will be 2 or more interest rate cuts this year; the other 9 officials believe that the Fed only needs to cut interest rates once or no longer cut interest rates this year. The dot plot shows that there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate cut path, which is conducive to the U.S. dollar maintaining its strength.​

However, the market is relatively optimistic about the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining months of this year. According to the "Fed Watch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 94.6%; the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 19%, and the cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 80.1%. Under the background of relatively optimistic interest rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index may remain weak.​

Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the market continued to rise in the previous trading day and closed with a positive candle, indicating that the U.S. dollar index has been relatively strong recently. From the indicator perspective, the 20-day and 62-day moving averages are expected to form a golden cross, and there is a chance for the U.S. dollar to rise further in the future. In the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around 98.72.

Nikkei 225:

On the daily chart, the market has maintained strength recently and has been consolidating at a high level for consecutive trading days. From the indicator perspective, the market is operating above the 20-day moving average, with bulls being relatively strong. However, the divergence rate is relatively high, so investors need to be alert to the risk of a market correction. On the 1-hour chart, the 20-day and 62-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, and there is a high chance of further upward movement in the future. In the short term, focus on the market's correction to test the support level around 48,183.

Copper:

On the weekly chart, the market rose and closed with positive candles for two consecutive weeks previously, indicating that bulls have dominated the market recently. On the daily chart, the moving average system has formed a golden cross, with bulls being relatively strong. From the perspective of form, the market is fluctuating upward and is likely to remain strong in the short term. Intraday focus on the market's correction to test the support level around the integer mark of $5.

9 October Market Snapshot:

1.The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show that there are serious divisions among officials. Only half of the officials believe that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and they cautiously suggest further interest rate cuts this year.

2.Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas have signed the first-phase agreement of our peace plan. Trump stated that after signing the peace agreement, he may visit the Middle East on the upcoming weekend.

3.Recently, in the sixth round of voting in the United States, the U.S. Senate once again rejected the bipartisan funding bill, and the federal government remains in a shutdown.

9 October Key Data/Events Preview:

1.20:30 (GMT+8): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 30.

2.20:30 (GMT+8): Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

3.20:45 (GMT+8): Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman.

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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