【Morning session】Tariff Tensions Flare Up Again; Gold Receives Another Boost

Gold:

As last week's trading approached the close, gold's price movement was full of twists and turns. After a technical pullback, driven by news factors, short-term gold buying volume increased significantly, which in turn pushed gold prices to turn the corner.

On October 10, 2025 (U.S. local time), U.S. President Trump announced that a 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese products starting from November 1, and export controls would be implemented on all key software. This marks a new phase in the China-U.S. tariff war. However, from the current perspective, the balance of competition has shifted, and the U.S. may lose more.

Peng Cheng, Market Strategist at Zhisheng Research（(exclusively invited by Plotio）, believes that with the current U.S. government shutdown, huge divisions between the two parties, and internal and external troubles, it is difficult to cope with a high-intensity tariff war. The result may intensify domestic conflicts and make the global supply chain more roundabout, complex and fragile.

From a technical perspective: Gold closed with a small bullish candle on the daily chart, and the price did not break below the moving average system. The price on the 1-hour cycle has returned to the previous consolidation range, the trend has returned to a bullish one, and there is a high probability of further new highs in the short term. For intraday trading, focus on the support level around $4,018.

Gold hourly chart

Crude Oil:

Affected by the tariff war last week, the outlook for international crude oil demand became more pessimistic, and oil prices also hit a new low since June this year. The downward trend led by the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to reverse in the short term.

The market generally worries that the trade protectionist measures pursued by the U.S. government will further weaken the momentum of global economic growth and ultimately suppress the demand of the world's largest crude oil consumer. Against the background that the crude oil market is already facing the possibility of oversupply, any signal of a weakening demand outlook will be amplified, triggering a chain reaction.

In addition, the market generally worries about the potential oversupply caused by OPEC+ accelerating the unwinding of production reduction plans. Combined with the latest data, affected by slowing demand and increased U.S. supply, there will be a crude oil oversupply situation in the fourth quarter of this year and 2026. Global offshore crude oil inventories have hit a two-year high, reaching an astonishing 1.25 billion barrels. The last time such a situation occurred was during the epidemic, and oil prices are under great downward pressure.

From a technical perspective: Crude oil has broken below the box range on the daily chart, the structure tends to be complete, and the price is oversold, so there is a possibility of a rebound. The trend structure of the 4-hour cycle may be completed, and there is a possibility of a short-term rebound. For intraday trading, focus on the resistance level around $60.50.

Crude oil hourly chart

Copper:

Copper closed with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, and the price broke below the long-term moving average support. However, this should currently be regarded as irrational market behavior. The price on the 1-hour cycle has broken below the previous box range, and the short-term downward momentum has not weakened. For intraday trading, focus on the resistance level around $5.

Nikkei 225:

The Nikkei 225 formed a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern on the daily chart, and the short-term downward momentum has not weakened. A "double top" breakdown has formed on the 4-hour cycle, indicating a trend reversal. For intraday trading, focus on the resistance level around 47,350.

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]

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