Senior Analyst Peng Cheng
2025-10-14 14:00:00
Since the end of September, there have been signs of international oil prices stabilizing and rebounding. However, from a fundamental perspective, the supply-demand contradiction in the international crude oil market is prominent. Coupled with OPEC+ launching a new round of production increases, it is quite difficult for international oil prices to achieve a fundamental reversal, and the current rebound is more likely to be merely a phased market movement.
Recently, OPEC+ agreed to moderately raise monthly production again, with an initial increase of 137,000 barrels per day. Separately, sources indicate that Saudi Arabia and other countries are planning to accelerate the release of remaining production capacity, with a scale of 1.66 million barrels per day. This is part of OPEC+'s new round of production increase plans. Its first round of production increases began in April this year, with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day. From May to September, the production increase basically remained in the range of 400,000 to 550,000 barrels per day, and in September, it completed the total production recovery target of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule.
OPEC+'s move aims to regain market share, particularly the portion seized by competitors such as U.S. shale oil producers. Data shows that as of the end of September 2025, OPEC+'s share in global crude oil supply has dropped to 48%, the lowest level since 2020. During the same period, the share of U.S. shale oil has risen from 2% to 14%, seizing approximately 7% of OPEC+'s global market share in just three years. The rise of U.S. shale oil has substantially impacted OPEC+'s long-term interests, and continuing production cuts no longer align with its strategic demands. Therefore, regaining market share through production increases has become the top priority at present, and oil prices are likely to become a casualty of the competition between the two sides.
Currently, U.S. tariff policies have impacted global economic growth, and it is expected that growth will slow further in the second half of the year. Combined with the impacts of multiple factors such as trade frictions, a high-interest-rate environment, and geopolitics, the economic trend faces numerous uncertainties. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 from the previous 3.1% to 2.9%. During the same period, it also lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth from 2.2% to 1.6%, while the Eurozone is expected to grow by 1%. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also stated in a forward-looking speech at the 2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings that global growth will slow slightly in the next two years, and the direction of tariff policies has become a key uncertain factor.
Peng Cheng , Market Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that the slowdown in economic growth will drag down crude oil consumption, thereby suppressing oil prices. Global crude oil consumption expectations are declining, and a number of energy institutions have frequently lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth. In the third quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC all lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year. In its September monthly report, the EIA predicted that global crude oil demand will grow by 900,000 barrels per day this year, a significant decrease from the 1.33 million barrels per day forecast at the start of the year. On one hand, production increases continue; on the other hand, demand remains sluggish. This has led to a continuous rise in global crude oil inventories. The EIA and IEA anticipate that the surplus in the global crude oil market will exceed 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and the annual surplus will also surpass 1.6 million barrels per day. The crude oil supply surplus in 2026 may hit a record high, which will exert heavy downward pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices on the daily chart fell below the previous support level but then recovered, only to break below it again later, forming a false upward break. Moreover, they have already fallen below a key support level, making it highly probable that there will be further new lows in the medium term. For the medium term, attention can be paid to the resistance level around $61.90 and the support level around $57.00.
[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.
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