Gold: In the early hours of 15 October, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the current U.S. labor market continues to weaken, and the economy has shown signs of recession.   A key point in Powell’s speech was that the long-running balance sheet reduction process may officially end at the October interest rate meeting. After the speech, the probability of an interest rate cut in October rose from 92% to 97%, and the rate cut expectation has been basically digested by the market.   In addition, the new round of tariff issues has had a significant impact on market sentiment. The implied volatility (fear index) once approached 33, near the extreme fear zone, but there is still a gap compared with 38 in late April. Under this circumstance, gold remains the most sought-after safe-haven asset globally and still has room for growth in the future.   Mai Dong, an Investment Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), opined that judging from implied volatility, the current market panic has not yet reached the level seen during the first round of tariff wars in late April this year. Combined with the expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of October, gold will continue its upward trend.     Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed, indicating a strong upward movement in the gold price.On the 1-hour chart, after the market corrected the divergence, the price remains above the 60/120-day moving averages. For today, focus on the support level at $4,150 below and the resistance level at $4,240 above.   Crude Oil: On 14 October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report showing that the global crude oil market may see a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, a figure significantly higher than the previously predicted surplus. The report stated that OPEC+ members and their competitors are all increasing production, while the global demand recovery remains weak, which will exacerbate the market’s supply-demand imbalance.   In terms of geopolitics, according to Matthew Whitaker, U.S. Ambassador to NATO, NATO is expected to continue investing huge funds to arm Ukraine in order to defend against Russia’s winter offensive. The ambassador also hinted that the EU will announce the latest financial support for Ukraine in the next few days.   Currently, the main driver of the crude oil market remains the new round of tariff issues. The IEA report shows that oversupply is still the main contradiction in the crude oil supply-demand side, and oil prices will be under pressure for a long time. On the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, whether Ukraine can survive the winter safely still needs attention.   Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bearish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the price has fallen below $59 and continues to trade in a low range.On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in a downtrend. For today, focus on the support level at $57.50 below and the resistance level at $59.30 above.   U.S. Dollar: On 14 October(local time), the U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill proposed by Republicans in the eighth round of voting. The final vote result was 49 in favor and 45 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, and the government remains shut down. Regarding the Euro, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) are gradually rising. The Euro may show signs of weakness in the coming period due to this factor. Currently, the market believes that the ECB may cut interest rates again in December, and if economic recovery is unsatisfactory amid long-term inflation below 2%, further interest rate cuts may occur in 2026.   Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bearish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the market has retested around 98.50.On the 1-hour chart, the market has seen lower highs, and the price has fallen below the 60/120-day moving averages, showing an obvious downward correction. For today, focus on the support level at 98.50 below and the resistance level at 99.50 above.   Nasdaq: On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the market is currently consolidating in the range of 24,000-25,200. On the 1-hour chart, the market pulled back to the key 618 Fibonacci retracement level yesterday and continued to rise. The key focus today is whether the price can reach a new high. For today, focus on the support level at 24,550 below and the resistance level at 24,950 above.   Copper: On the daily chart, copper closed with a bearish candle; on the daily timeframe, the price encountered significant resistance at $5.12. On the 1-hour chart, the price has neither reached a new high nor a new low, and the current price is in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Focus on the pattern breakout. For today, focus on the support level at $4.90 below and the resistance level at $5.05 above.   15 October Market Snapshot： 1.Gold price hit a new high again, once refreshing the high to $4,199. 2.Fed’s Bowman: Continues to expect two more interest rate cuts before the end of this year. 3.Fed’s Collins: A 25-basis-point interest rate cut is appropriate given reduced inflation risks and concerns about the job market. 4.Fed Chair Powell: Balance sheet reduction may be near an end in the next few months; downside risks to the job market are rising.   15 October Key Data/Events Preview： 1.20:30 (Beijing Time): U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index. 2.21:30 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech. 3.01:00 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech. 4.01:35 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed’s Lisa Cook delivers a speech. 5.02:00 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed releases the Beige Book (Economic Conditions).   [Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.

Gold: Overnight, gold saw a short-term flash crash. After hitting a new high around the $4,180 level, it plummeted sharply in the short term, with a maximum pullback of nearly $90. However, it rebounded during the U.S. session and finally closed up 0.77%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell paved the way for the central bank to continue cutting interest rates this month. He emphasized that the job market is showing signs of weakness, though concerns about stubborn inflation persist. He also stated that the Fed is trying to balance the two risks and exploring new policy measures to address them. Peng Cheng, Market Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), believes that the U.S. government shutdown has impacted the economy. This will push the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts to prevent systemic risks, and may even lead to the end of balance sheet reduction. Technical Analysis: Gold closed with a small bullish candle with a long upper wick on the daily chart. Although bulls still have the upper hand, divergences have emerged. On the 1-hour chart, the low points are moving higher while the high points remain flat, making it highly likely to form a continuation pattern of the uptrend. A new high may be reached during the day. In the short term, focus on support around the $4,135 level, but also be wary of the possibility that the uptrend could end after a new high is set.

Gold: According to relevant media reports, on 13 October(local time), U.S. President Trump held a peace summit with the leaders of Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar in Egypt, and signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement to end the war.   This agreement is expected to serve as a key basis for consolidating the Gaza ceasefire, ensuring the continuous flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and fully launching Gaza’s reconstruction. After the tariff war started, the gold price rose steadily and once approached $4,180. However, as the Middle East issue moves toward reconciliation and the resurgence of TACO trades, the gold price has undergone a divergence correction.   Mai Dong, an Investment Strategist at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio), noted that this year’s historic surge in gold prices is second only to those in 1973, 1974, and 1979—periods that coincided with the order-rebuilding phase after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Gold’s performance this year has far exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of the "unprecedented changes in a century" globally, de-dollarization and major geopolitical turbulences will continue to support the strength of gold prices.     Technical Analysis：On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed, indicating a strong upward movement in the gold price.On the 1-hour chart, the market has seen a divergence correction, and the price remains above the 60/120-day moving averages; the uptrend remains intact. For today, focus on the support level at $4,050 below and the resistance level at $4,180 above.   Crude Oil: Geopolitics:According to relevant media reports, on 13 October(local time), Ukrainian President Zelensky met with Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Kyiv. The two sides focused on discussions regarding energy support for Ukraine during the winter, the EU’s new round of sanctions against Russia, and the use of Russia’s frozen overseas assets.   On 13 October, OPEC released its Oil Market Report. It projected that global crude oil demand in 2026 will be 43.1 million barrels per day (unchanged from the previous month), revised up its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day (from the previous 1.29 million barrels per day), and maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day.   Currently, the main driver of the crude oil market remains trade uncertainty. The latest monthly report shows that global oil demand growth will be limited within the next two years, and crude oil prices will remain in a low-range operation.     Technical Analysis：On the daily chart, a small bullish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the price has fallen below $60 and remains in a low range. On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in a downtrend. For today, focus on the support level at $58.10 below and the resistance level at $59.80 above.   U.S. Dollar: Trump’s tariff war has triggered panic sentiment, and the U.S. dollar, as a safe-haven asset, may enter a high-range consolidation phase. However, it should be noted that as U.S. effective tax rates continue to rise, U.S. enterprises may raise prices to offset the increased costs caused by tariffs, which will exacerbate the risk of economic recession.   At the same time, investors view this trade dispute as a new round of TACO trades, and it is expected that they will increase their holdings of U.S. assets and the U.S. dollar again in the future. Under this scenario, the U.S. dollar will be provided with upward momentum.   Regarding the Euro:Germany’s fiscal stimulus has accelerated, and the overall growth of the Eurozone has improved. It is expected that after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the end of October, or if U.S. economic data falls short of expectations, the U.S. dollar’s subsequent upward movement may face resistance around the 100.50 level—given that the Euro’s fundamentals are relatively more favorable.     Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, a bullish candle was closed; on the daily timeframe, the market is trading above 98.50.On the 1-hour chart, the market is still in an uptrend, with the price trading above the 60/120-day moving averages. For today, focus on the support level at 99.10 below, the resistance level at 99.50 above, and monitor for a new intraday high.     Nasdaq: On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the market is currently consolidating in the range of 24,000-25,200. On the 1-hour chart, the market did not experience a V-shaped reversal yesterday; it pulled back to near the 120-day moving average, encountered resistance, and continued to decline. For today, focus on the resistance level at 24,700 above and the support level at 24,200 below.   Copper: On the daily chart, copper closed with a bullish candle; on the daily timeframe, the price encountered significant resistance at $5.12. On the 1-hour chart, the price did not reach a new high and is trading below the 60/120-day moving averages; the market has shifted to a downward trend. For today, focus on the support level at $4.76 below and the resistance level at $5.01 above.     14 October Market Snapshot： 1.International gold and silver hit new highs: On the 14th, gold once refreshed its high to $4,179, and silver once broke through $53. 2.Bank of America (BofA): Raised its next-year gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce. 3.SocGen: Predicts that the gold price will reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. 4.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: After the government reopens, official Treasury Department data will be released.   14 October Key Data/Events Preview： 1.20:45 (Beijing Time): Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech. 2.21:00 (Beijing Time): The IMF releases the World Economic Outlook Report. 3.00:20 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech. 4.03:25 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivers a speech. 5.03:30 (Beijing Time, next day): Fed President Susan Collins delivers a speech.   [Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.This article is from Plotio. Please indicate the source when reprinting.